Kenya Avocado Season 2026: What Importers Need to Know

Kenya's avocado sector is experiencing a boom. Over 50,000 hectares of new Hass plantings from 2018-2021 are now reaching optimal productivity, with combined output projected to reach 450,000 metric tons in 2026.

The Trans-Nzoia, Uasin Gishu, and Kisii regions are driving growth, accounting for nearly 65% of national volume. These cooler highland regions produce superior fruit quality with excellent size distribution—critical for premium EU and UK markets.

Production flow has also improved significantly. Better irrigation infrastructure and pest management protocols mean we're seeing more consistent weekly supplies throughout the season (February to October peak).

Increased supply is naturally creating downward price pressure. We anticipate Q2 pricing to trend 15-20% lower than 2024 levels, with Class 1 Hass (200-300g) trading in the €0.65-0.85/kg range rather than last year's €0.80-0.95.

However, the supply curve isn't linear. Seasonal bottlenecks still occur—March undergrowth fruit and August-September post-harvest dips continue to create micro-premiums of 10-15%.

Currency volatility remains a wild card. The Kenyan Shilling's strengthening to KES 155/USD (from 160 last year) has reduced nominal USD-based pricing pressure, but importers paying in EUR are seeing better value. Lock in forward contracts in January-February to secure optimal rates.